A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
