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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still